Since the World Health Organization (WHO) first declared in November 2021 that the world was facing a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has transformed the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Let’s take a look back at the impact that Omicron has had in the one year since it emerged.
Data demonstrated early on that Omicron was significantly more transmissible than the preceding variant of concern, the Delta variant. COVID-19 tracing then rapidly confirmed the swift spread of Omicron across South Africa, buoyed by an increased risk of reinfection compared to previous variants. Within four weeks, Omicron had replaced Delta as the dominant variant around the world 1, and countries which had been previously successful in minimizing the impact of COVID-19 through public health measures began to struggle, while hospitalization numbers soared. One year later, Omicron remains the dominant COVID-19 variant.
Overall, however, this new variant incurred less severe disease than Delta, likely as a result of a number of factors. Not only was population immunity steadily increasing worldwide due to vaccination and infections, but the virus was found to replicate more efficiently in the upper airway, resulting in less severe respiratory symptoms. It is important to note that the characteristics that benefit an infectious agent and help it spread do not necessarily cause greater harm in people.
The impact of Omicron on the labor force was rapid and significant 2. A recent U.S. Census Bureau survey found that the number of individuals who were not working, either because they or an individual under their care was suffering from COVID-19, had tripled over the course of one month 3. As a result, it has been difficult at times for many regions of the world to ensure enough workers to administer shots, teach children, or even drive buses 4.
Given its unpredictability, Omicron has resulted in a certain degree of uncertainty with regard to the future, as well. This uncertainty means that individual families, businesses, and policy makers are struggling to make plans, leaving many unsettled 5.
Since the emergence of Omicron one year ago, the virus has continued to evolve rapidly. Today, there are over 500 sublineages of the Omicron variant, although none of which represents a new variant of concern. These sublineages tend to have mutations that make them escape immunity more easily and very transmissible, but also replicate more efficiently in the upper airway and tend to result in less severe damage. This means that similar public health strategies can be leveraged to address them as they spread 1.
Assessing the impacts and public health burden of potential variants of concern is fundamental to guiding ongoing COVID-19 control measures. Genomic and population epidemiological surveillance are critical this end, and the WHO, alongside public health professionals around the globe, continues to closely monitor the circulating variants for signs of the next variant of concern 6.
However, these efforts remain imperfect since rates of testing and sequencing are declining and the sequences that are available are not globally representative. Furthermore, surveillance of human-animal interfaces, where the next variant of concern could originate, remains limited as well 1.
While it may be difficult to cease or slow the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant, it will be critical for global stakeholders to collaborate swiftly in the detection of variants and sharing of information crucial to minimizing the impact on lives.
References
- One year since the emergence of COVID-19 virus variant Omicron. Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron. (Accessed: 9th December 2022)
- PMI survey data to reveal Omicron impact around the world | S&P Global. Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi-survey-data-to-reveal-omicron-impact-around-the-world-jan22.html. (Accessed: 9th December 2022)
- Bureau, U. C. Week 41 Household Pulse Survey: December 29 – January 10.
- Omicron has had more than a mild impact on workforces | World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/omicron-had-a-more-than-a-mild-impact-on-workforces/. (Accessed: 9th December 2022)
- Omicron’s Economic Toll: Missing Workers, More Uncertainty and Higher Inflation (Maybe) – The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/business/economy/omicron-economy.html. (Accessed: 9th December 2022)
- Le Rutte, E. A., Shattock, A. J., Chitnis, N., Kelly, S. L. & Penny, M. A. Modelling the impact of Omicron and emerging variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and public health burden. Commun. Med. 2022 21 2, 1–7 (2022). doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00154-z.
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